The Braindump Blog

Well, this photo from an article in the Guardian today about a drought officially being declared in the UK definitely makes it look like most of the country is turning into a desert.

The last 9 months has been the driest since 1976.

If ever you felt the desire to have a 3D representation of your Github commits in the form of a city skyline, the good news is that now, thanks to “You did it!”, apparently you can.

I’m enjoying the “Standard eBooks” site as a source for out-of-copyright books for eReaders et al.

It’s a similar concept to the fabulous Project Gutenberg et al.

The main difference is that Standard eBooks ensure the texts are first cleaned up in terms of typos, punctuation, design, typography and metadata. They also add eReader-supported features like tables of contents and footnotes that you don’t always see in free downloads.

All books are available in epub, azw3 (for Kindle), kepub and advanced epub formats. As a Kindle user, I found it easiest to email the epub version to my Kindle, now Amazon started supporting that file format.

You can volunteer to help or donate if you feel so inclined.

I recently learned of the existence of the Cain’s Jawbone book 📚. It’s a murder mystery novel written in 1934.

However, the 100 pages of the book come to you arranged in the wrong order. To solve it you have to figure out the order they should be in. The number of possible combinations is a number with 158 digits.

Originally one could win a prize for doing so - £15 in 1934, and £1000 more recently after it was re-released.

Apparently it’s only known to have been solved 4 times ever so far, the solution being almost the only thing not yet available for download on the internet.

Needed to remind myself today that there is no neat practical interpretation of the Pearson’s coefficient of correlation “r” after seeing a report that suggested otherwise. It’s true - it is useful for comparing how strong and in which direction correlations are between two variables. But that’s about it.

Or

The correlation coefficient is sometimes criticized as having no obvious intrinsic interpretation

as Schober et al put it a little more formally.

You can square it to produce an R² if you like to produce a “coefficient of determination”, which does have an IRL meaning. R² expresses the percent of variation in one variable that’s explained by the variation in the other one.

Just the same as R² in a linear regression model. In fact a simple linear regression like “y given x” will have an R² that is the square of the correlation coefficient between x and y.

Watched Primal Fear 📽 over the weekend.

Recorded crime in the UK has reached a 20 year high in the first quarter of 2022, with 6.3 million crimes recorded.

Now this may well relate to changes in policy or willingness to report rather than a general increase in crime. Especially as the ONS crime survey, which doesn’t require the crime to have been reported to the police, doesn’t appear to show an increase in overall crime, at least at first glance.

But something that definitely appears to be the case is that only a tiny proportion of recorded crime results in someone being charged.

Now I usually find myself on the side of wanting to reduce the number of situations police get involved in. Criminalising someone should be a last resort. Police officers seem to be regularly sent in to handle situations that other people would likely be better trained for, including being asked to deal with an increasing number of situations where someone is suffering from a mental health crisis. This is not a good situation for either party concerned.

But where a crime has been committed then that is the domain of the police. Despite not having a particularly optimistic view of the situation, even I was a little shocked to read that only 5.6% of offences reported in 2021-2022 led to a suspect being charged or summonsed.

Unsurprisingly, rape remains one of the rarest crimes to end up with a suspect being charged, with only 1.3% of reported crimes resulting in one.

A Telegraph investigation showed that in 84% of nearly 21,000 neighbourhoods that had reported at least one theft in the last three years, no suspects were ever identified fpr any of them. In 20 neighbourhoods over 100 thefts had been reported, with zero being solved.

No doubt part of this is explainable by the decline of the capabilities of many public services, at least partly thanks to Conservative’s lack of investment or care.

The number of police officers in England and Wales fell by over 20,000 between 2010 and 2019, although this looks as though they increased to narrow the gap a little in 2020. I don’t know the research on to what extent raw police numbers relate to the rate of solving crime, but intuitively presumably there’s a floor at which there’s simply no resources left to carry out thorough investigations. Even holding the numbers steady wouldn’t make sense if there’s an increase in the number of crimes being reported.

There’s probably also indirect effects based on cuts to other services.

Earlier this week the Independent reported that due to a lack of NHS resources the police have now become a surrogate ambulance service in some places. Police personnel and vehicles are being sent to assist, transport and wait with patients who are suffering emergency medical conditions such as heart attacks. More sitting in hospitals waiting for a spare NHS bed for the unlucky patient they’re with presumably entails less time to solve crimes.

Finished reading: The Death of Ivan Ilyich by Leo Nikolayevich Tolstoy 📚.

A fairly short, often harrowing, story about a man forced to confront his own death, and the actions of those around him. Lots to think about here about the nightmarish oft-unspoken issues we have dealing with death, whether our own or others. Very recommended, if you’re ready to stare into the uncomfortable void.

A Guardian review sums it up nicely as:

a hard, pitiless stare into the abyss, not just of death, but of human nature.

There’s also a Very Bad Wizards podcast episode about it I found useful.

Over here, I wrote about why the majority of England’s Covid-19 deaths are now from vaccinated people despite the fact that the vaccines continue work well, particularly in terms of protection from death.

There’s a ton of nuances one could (and I did 🙂 ) wade through, but TLDR is basically:

1. There are just way more people that are vaccinated than unvaccinated in the UK. Over 93% of the English eligible population have had at least 1 dose.
2. Those who are vaccinated tend to be older (and possibly have other high-risk conditions), making them much more vulnerable to dying from Covid if there is a brekathrough infection, which inevitably at times there is.

As soon as you control for just the difference in number of and age of people it becomes apparent that the vaccines still seem very effective at saving lives.

Liz Truss, the odds-on favourite to be the British Prime Minister in a few weeks time, appears to be proposing to solve the cost of living crisis - i.e. people not having enough money to live a decent life - by reducing the amount of money a bunch of people have.

Apparently “tailoring” pay for civil servants is going to save up to £8.8 billion. Given the total civil service pay bill is apparently around £9 billion per year, that seems - even in its own terms - ambitious.

My current stats nerd learning focus is structual equation modeling. It’s something I’ve seen used, but never tried.

For anyone else in the same boat, I’ve had the Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling 📚 recommended, alongside a 6-video playlist for an intro.

Finished reading: Oblivion: Stories by David Foster Wallace 📚.

Rolling Stone quotes him as wanting to write:

…stuff about what it feels like to live. Instead of being a relief from what it feels like to live.

and I think he certainly achieved that goal in this book. I found this an incredible collection of short stories that range from the absurd through to those that have an upsettingly familiar verbalisation of the unspoken pain of everyday existence.

Pretty much every story felt enriching and deep, with a weirdly enticing property of “are there more layers I’m not even beginning to understand?” upon completion.

“Incarnations of Burned Children” is both one of the shortest and one of the most intense and horrific stories I’ve ever read.

As a reminder of the increasing salience of climate change, it was interesting to read about the cohort of Americans who are already making the decision on where to live within their country based on perceived resilience to the effects of climate change. They’re essentially internal climate migrants.

This sometimes involves moving from the “prestigious” popular cities, such as San Francisco with its proximity to regular wildfires, to lesser known places. It seems like the town of Duluth is one semi popular option. Although naturally that led to housing prices increasing rapidly. So, whilst one needed a certain amount of privilege to be in a position to relocate in the first place, it’s increasingly going to be an opportunity only available to the wealthier; a continuation of the housing market’s seemingly insatiable ability to divide the world into the haves and have-nots.

From the article, it doesn’t seem that we know how many relocation decisions are primarily driven by climate concerns, but a survey it links to (I haven’t checked validity of it!) suggests it is something that many people at least consider as a factor, especially those under 45 years old.

For those people who do want to think about this, CNN used some analysis from a firm called FourTwentySeven that analyses climate risk data to produce maps that show various measures of climate-related risk factors projected forward a decade or two.

I’m enjoying the “Moriarty - the Devil’s Game” podcast. In practice it’s delivered more like a radio play. Am only half way through but it’s feeling like a Moriarty (of Sherlock Holmes fame) origin story.

Only available on Audible unfortunately, but free if you’re a subscriber.

This outrageous weather led me to discover that frozen grapes are an amazing ‘I’m far too hot to survive’ snack.

Wondering what else to freeze and eat now 🤔.

So as today is the hottest UK day ever, I’m grateful for the Jay et al. study “Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes”. There they discuss the pros and cons of various personal and structural solutions to keeping cool.

Here’s their summary infographic.

As highlighted by Tom Hamilton’s juxtaposition of a couple of recent newspaper front pages, it’s wildly exciting to see that the UK is likely to have a socialist government soon! 😍

Rees-Mogg tells Sunak his tax increases are socialist.

Whereas Sunak tells Truss and Mordaunt that their tax decreases are…um…socialist.

Just like various other culture war topics, using “socialist” to mean “evil” seems to be another of those unfortunate phenomena that UK Conservatives seem desperate to import from the US. Despite the fact that at present I don’t think it’s as effective in terms as inspiring hatred and conflict over here as it is there (?), thankfully.

The UK is still on course for a record-breakingly high temperature this week. Already the air feels a little like being inside a hairdryer to me.

The Sun’s front page appears to suggest in written and photographic form that we might like to head to the beach.

Perhaps not the most responsible reporting when the actual health advice is mainly to stay out of the sun, particuarly in peak hours.

In an unexpected twist, the latest front in the mostly-meh-version of the culture war that UK Conservatives seem desperate to provoke appears to be…the weather.

Sir John Hayes, a Conservative MP who chairs the presumably sarcastically named named ‘Common Sense Group’ and by amazing coincidence also happens to receive £50,000 a year from an oil company, had the following to say:

This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat.

It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting.Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.

The idea that we clamour for hot weather for most of the year and then shut down when it does heat up is indicative of the state in which we now live.

In case anyone was curious about actual facts, the chance of the next few days featuring the hottest ever temperatures seen in the UK has risen to 80%, which is likely to cause thousands of deaths even if people do ‘cowardly’ take precautions.

There’s a type of modern conservative - thankfully seen more overseas as far as I can tell - that really just seems to love owning libs by recommending that their own followers do things that are likely to cause harm to themselves.

Temporarily paused watching the incredible Mr Robot show after season 2 to let it all sink into my brain. It’s delightfully complicated in places.

Switched to catching up on The Handmaid’s Tale 📺- somehow I’d missed that there’s season 3 and 4 I haven’t seen, with 5 coming soon.

Finished listening to The Queen’s Gambit by Walter Tevis 📚.

I enjoyed it a lot, but I also like chess. Whilst there are interesting non-chess themes throughout, there’s also a lot of pretty detailed recountings of chess games! It’d be cool if the paper version drew the games out.

The next version of iOS gives Apple devices a lockdown mode designed to repel even the kind of attacks that state-sponsored hackers employ. It’s at the cost of several features so is billed as “only turn it on if you feel you have reason to”. But I like the idea.

A report from BCG suggests that plant-based meat alternatives are the most effective things to invest in from a climate point of view by a long shot, mainly because of the huge amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted under conventional meat and dairy production.

Yesterday a friend sent me this absolute horror show of a temperature forecast map for the UK.

It’s already been hot a while, but seemingly next Monday and Tuesday are going to feel extra unlivable for us in the UK, where it’s not very common for people to have air con or many other anti-being-too-hot facilities.

The MET has issued an extreme heat warning. The NHS is trying to brace itself for yet more health emergencies in amongst all the ongoing Covid.

This kind of heat can in particular be dangerous to older people with certain medical conditions, so there’s lots of good advice out there about checking on your potentially vulnerable neighbours. But if it gets hot enough that a level 4 heatwave alert is issued for the first time ever, then then even the risk-factor-free population may suffer harm if precautions are not taken.

Some of the potential side-effects of this type of excessive heat can include:

• Road surfaces and pavements melting, as happened in previous heatwaves.
• Railway lines buckling. Railway lines can get to be 20 degrees hotter than the air temperature. At a certain temperature, restrictions are placed on the speed of trains.
• Electricity supply problems - both because there’s an increase in demand for energy, and the heat reduces how much power the system can carry. Plus power stations get less efficient. It’s possible that certain designs of nuclear power reactors have to shut down because the water used to cool them gets too warm, although so far that’s never happened in the UK.
• Water shortages, due to excessive demand.
• Wildfires starting.
• Smell, dust, infestations.
• Reduced crop harvests.

Basically a lot of stuff that in extremis sounds a little dystopian. But it is 2022, so I wouldn’t rule any of it out.

There’s an estimated 30% chance that next week will in fact beat the current UK highest ever temperature on record, which was 38.7 degrees Celsius in July 2019.

New temperature records - and the associated death and destruction - might not be rare in the future though if we don’t finally find a way to reduce humanity’s damage to the environment. A study from a couple of years back estimated that temperatures about 40 degrees would be seen every 3-4 years in the UK by the end of the century if we don’t do something to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

The Conservative leadership contest is progressing with all the charm and grace you would imagine. Intra-party leaks and briefings about rival candidates, lots of truly ludicrous tax cut promises and a bit of culture war here and there.

There’s just so many of them - eleven candidates at one point before Chishti, Javid and Shapps withdrew. And despite the fact that everyone has an opinion, it’s not clear that we actually know who they even are.

A poll from Savanta ComRes asked people to name the candidates based on their official photo.

Looking at the more realistic-to-have-a-chance few, about two-thirds of people could identify Rishi Sunak, a third could identify Liz Truss and just 11% managed Penny Mordaunt.

If you look only at Conservative voters, the numbers don’t exactly sky-rocket - 77%, 45% and 16% respectively. Two people thought Mordaunt was the global soul-pop sensation Adele.

In a way this doesn’t yet matter. The British public has no direct way to select the next Prime Minister. The way the system works it’s only the 358 Conservative MPs that get a say in which candidate progresses at this stage. When it’s down to the final two then a tiny subsection of the British public - the 0.35% of the electorate that are members of the Conservative party - get to cast their votes, assuming neither of the candidates stands down. So actually there’s a way in which if 99% of Britons have no knowledge whatsoever of who any of the candidates are it might not change too much in terms of the short term outcome.

Of course the 0.35% who do get a vote are not a random selection of the population - they skew:

• Older: 40% are over 66 years old according to the Party Member’s Project, quoted by Quartz
• Whiter: 97% white vs 86% of the population
• More “middle class” 86% from the top social classes “ABC1”, vs 55% of the population (at least the latter was the figure in 2016)
• Richer: 1 in 20 of them making more than £100k a year
• Male: 70% male, vs an unsurprisingly near 50:50 split in the population

Better yet, Ipsos Mori conducted a survey designed to be representative of adults aged 18-75 in Great Britain. One of the questions, appearing on slide 3 of the output, asked about “familiarity with politicians”, with most of the questions being about the Conservative leadership candidates.

Sunak outpaces the others by quite a lot in terms of recognition. The politician least familiar to the British public in that survey was Stewart Lewis. A full 65% of people said they hadn’t ever heard of him, and only 12% claimed to know at least a fair amount about him.

The inevitable twist is that there is no British politician called Stewart Lewis, despite the fact that over a third of people made out that they’d heard of him - substantially higher than the Lizardman constant of 4%.