Covid-19 mRNA vaccines are weakly associated with Myopericarditis - but not nearly as much as having Covid-19 is

A recent paper provides a systematic review of studies on the link between the COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations and myopericarditis in young people.

They find that there’s a low but positive association between the vaccination and later myopericarditis, particularly in males after the second dose of the vaccine. The ovreall rate of developing myopericarditis after vaccination is estimated to be between 0.3 and 5 cases per 100,000 vaccinated people.

But - and this is a huge but - this risk is far lower than the risk of developing the same condition after being infected by Covid-19 itself.

So whilst it’s important and true that there is a risk of myocarditis after the mRNA vaccines (and no conspiracy theorists, no-one sensible is covering this up - here for example is the UK government’s published advice on this matter) when making our decisions we need to remember that you’re more than 3x more likely to get myocarditis if you’re infected by Covid as opposed to if you take the vaccine and it prevents you getting Covid.

The authors also find that the severity of outcomes associated with developing myopericarditis was lower if it was associated with having developed after vaccination vs if it had developed following Covid-19. No-one in any of the surveyed studies

To me, this is all about considering which the correct baselines are for any given decision. Vaccines are not entirely risk free. But given almost everyone in the UK appears to have had Covid-19 at some point and it continues to circulate nearly 2 years later, it is usually more sensible for the average person not literally living in a bubble to compare the risks associated with the vaccine to the risks associated with getting Covid, rather than some fantasy lifestyle where there is no risk to not having the vaccine.

In summary: I believe this study suggests taking the vaccine makes it more than 3x less likely you’d suffer myopericarditis if you got the vaccine as opposed to getting Covid. Furthermore if you do contract it post-vaccination, it’s less likely to be severe than if it followed Covid. However it is slightly more likely that you’d develop it than if you went through life having never had either the vaccine or Covid-19.